On the one hand, they do not go far enough, others regard it as a gross exaggeration: in the Wake of The Coronavirus pandemic, imposed restrictions will be evaluated by the population is very controversial, and the fronts harden. Opponents of the protection measures argue, among other things, that the real Influenza and a lot more people would die than at Covid-19, it have, even when severe flu outbreaks, however, never been such cuts in the everyday life.
This point of view, walls, way, circulating in the social networks for weeks in various posts, in which the number of flu deaths of the season 2017/18 with the previous Corona-death cases are compared. The Problem is that Both values are completely collected in different ways, and can therefore not compare.
A number is (almost) correct, but that was it already
Also in this Facebook Post of 13. April will be exactly carried out this comparison – whether you are aware or ignorant of the facts. The statement of 8800 Times shared and a hundred times commented post (Stand: 23. April) is very clear: what has been prescribed in Germany by the government, has completely lost this dimension.
This Posting is still online, was provided by Facebook, however, with the note that the spread information is partially incorrect
In fact, there were up to 13. April, according to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on the same day 2799 Corona confirmed deaths in Germany. The value included both cases where Covid-19 was the cause of death (“died”), as well as the cases of Infected with pre-existing conditions, in which the Virus isolation is not formed, however, the cause of death is confirmed (“died”). As the RKI Covid-19-recorded deaths, can be read here. The Account-holder reported 3000 Corona-the dead were at that time so nearly correct.
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It is different, however, with the allegedly 25.100 flu dead in season 2017/18, which was actually a heavy. But: When the RKI stated value is only a statistical estimate of deaths for the period of the wave of Flu, such as the Institute stated in its then-season report. The Basis for this is the so-called Excess mortality, in the case of the experts “the of the Influenza-attributed mortality by means of statistical procedures” estimate, such as the Institute writes.
To do this, first the so-called background mortality is calculated, i.e. the expected death rate (“mortality”) without the influence of Influenza. In a second step it is then checked whether the flu season die in comparison to the other months of the year, more and more people. An increase in the death rate is detected, to assign the experts, these cases of death of Influenza. This value is used as Excess mortality or excess mortality , referred to as, among other things, read here (page 34). For the season 2017/18 was therefore assumed subsequently that there may have been up to 25.100 Influenza Deaths. The number of reported flu deaths, i.e. cases of “laboratory-confirmed Influenza infection”, was “only” 1674 cases, such as the RKI writes. Between the estimate and confirmed cases, a large difference exists so.
Influenza rarely as a cause of death in the death certificate
How can that be? As, among other things, the research centre “Correctiv.org” with reference to the RKI data writes, the different Figures are also based on the fact that Influenza is frequently listed as a cause of death in the death certificate, because this was hiding “behind other pre-existing conditions”. One reason why the RKI, the mortality needs to estimate and thus often significantly more deaths than it ultimately gave.
In the Facebook Posting, a comparison is lagging so significantly misleading, he is all. You could also say: Here Apples are compared with pears.
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Where are the missing 24.689 flu dead?
In the same vein, the contribution of a Facebook page, which has around 240,000 subscribers, a quite considerable range of beats. In the following Posting which is supposedly around 25,000 influenza deaths of the season 2017/18-and in relation to the 411 by RKI reported cases for the period between October 2019 and the beginning of April 2010 set. The statement of the Posts in short version: The missing 24.489 flu dead in comparison to the Vorvorjahr are now counted simply as Covid-19-Dead, in order to make the pandemic bigger than it is.
This Facebook Posting is now no longer locate
To estimated the facts: The RKI Influenza deaths for the period of 40. Calendar week of 2019, up to 3. April of this year, in fact, in 411 cases, as stated in the report for the calendar week 14/2020. In the report for the following week, the talk is of 434 flu dead.
The Facebook page pulls in so as the above example, the Excess-estimate for comparison. Should the 411 cases in the current season, however, with the already mentioned 1674 laboratory-confirmed Influenza deaths from 2017/18 in the reference set, resulting in a difference of 1263, but not 24.689 cases. In view of the Fact that the flu wave 2017/18 was an unusually heavy, the current according to the RKI, however, already in mid-March, ebb and Germany made to create since then, barely a comprehensible value.
This does not fit well into the Narrative of the page, which tries in various contributions to the current Situation as the panic of a variety of actors to portray. Under the Post itself is written by the way: “if you look closely, knows the answer!” Did the author of the publication, but only once…
Sources: Robert Koch Institute / DPA-fact check on the press portal / “Pharmazeutische Zeitung” / “correctiv.org” / Facebook
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